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Creators/Authors contains: "Lee, Craig"

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  1. Climate-driven changes in high-elevation forest distribution and reductions in snow and ice cover have major implications for ecosystems and global water security. In the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem of the Rocky Mountains (United States), recent melting of a high-elevation (3,091 m asl) ice patch exposed a mature stand of whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) trees, located ~180 m in elevation above modern treeline, that date to the mid-Holocene (c. 5,950 to 5,440 cal y BP). Here, we used this subfossil wood record to develop tree-ring-based temperature estimates for the upper-elevation climate conditions that resulted in ancient forest establishment and growth and the subsequent regional ice-patch growth and downslope shift of treeline. Results suggest that mid-Holocene forest establishment and growth occurred under warm-season (May-Oct) mean temperatures of 6.2 °C (±0.2 °C), until a multicentury cooling anomaly suppressed temperatures below 5.8 °C, resulting in stand mortality by c. 5,440 y BP. Transient climate model simulations indicate that regional cooling was driven by changes in summer insolation and Northern Hemisphere volcanism. The initial cooling event was followed centuries later (c. 5,100 y BP) by sustained Icelandic volcanic eruptions that forced a centennial-scale 1.0 °C summer cooling anomaly and led to rapid ice-patch growth and preservation of the trees. With recent warming (c. 2000–2020 CE), warm-season temperatures now equal and will soon exceed those of the mid-Holocene period of high treeline. It is likely that perennial ice cover will again disappear from the region, and treeline may expand upslope so long as plant-available moisture and disturbance are not limiting. 
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  2. The Davis Strait observing system was established in 2004 to advance understanding of the role of Arctic – sub-Arctic interactions in the climate system by collecting sustained measurements of physical, chemical and biological variability at one of the primary gateways that connect the Arctic and subpolar oceans. Efforts began as a collaboration between researchers at the University of Washington’s Applied Physics Laboratory and the Canadian Department of Fisheries and Ocean’s Bedford Institute of Oceanography, but has grown to include researchers from the Greenland Institute of Natural Resources, Greenland Climate Institute, Danish Technological University, University of Alberta and University of Colorado, Boulder. The project is a component of the NSF Arctic Observing and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Networks, and the international Arctic-Subarctic Ocean Flux (ASOF) program, Global Ocean Ship-Based Hydrographic Investigations Program (GO-SHIP), Global Ocean Acidification Observing Network (GOA-ON), Arctic Monitoring Assessment Programme (AMAP) and OceanSITES system. Seaglider observations of temperature and salinity extending from the surface to a maximum of 1000 meter (m) depth were collected in Davis Strait from 2005-2014. Seagliders made repeat transects across Davis Strait between waypoints near 66°45' North (N), 60°30' West (W) and 67°N, 56°30' W (though these waypoints and the pathway of the gliders between the waypoints varied). Acoustic navigation enabled year-round data collection. This dataset contains 15 files, each of which contains Level 3 data from one Seaglider deployment in Davis Strait. Deployments lasted from 11 to 174 days and had a median duration of 83 days. Files contain several temperature and salinity products: data not interpolated or despiked; data despiked and interpolated to a common depth/time grid; and low-pass filtered data. Files also include quality control (QC) flags. Each file also contains depth-averaged current vectors from the Seaglider flight model and surface current vectors estimated from the Seaglider's drift track. Data files are named as follows: sg<seaglider number>_DavisStrait_<deployment data in MmmYY format>_level3.nc Level 2 files containing individual dive data are available by contacting the dataset creator. More details about the project can be found at https://iop.apl.washington.edu/project.php?id=davis. 
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  3. The Davis Strait observing system was established in 2004 to advance understanding of the role of Arctic – sub-Arctic interactions in the climate system by collecting sustained measurements of physical, chemical and biological variability at one of the primary gateways that connect the Arctic and subpolar oceans. Efforts began as a collaboration between researchers at the University of Washington’s Applied Physics Laboratory and the Canadian Department of Fisheries and Ocean’s Bedford Institute of Oceanography, but has grown to include researchers from the Greenland Institute of Natural Resources, Greenland Climate Institute, Danish Technological University, University of Alberta and University of Colorado, Boulder. The project is a component of the NSF Arctic Observing and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Networks, and the international Arctic-Subarctic Ocean Flux (ASOF) program, Global Ocean Ship-Based Hydrographic Investigations Program (GO-SHIP), Global Ocean Acidification Observing Network (GOA-ON), Arctic Monitoring Assessment Programme (AMAP) and OceanSITES system. A mooring array spanning the entire Davis Strait has been in place nearly continuously since September 2004 as part of the Davis Strait observing system, collecting year-round measurements of temperature, salinity and velocity extending to the sea surface/ice-ocean interface. The mooring typically included 14 moorings, 4 on each shelf and 6 in the center of the strait, that are recovered and data offloaded each autumn. Exact mooring location, instrumentation, and deployment duration varied slightly over time. This dataset consists of Level 2 data from the Davis Strait mooring array. Each file contains data from a single sensor (e.g., MicroCAT temperature and salinity measurements or ADCP velocity measurements) at one mooring site collected during a single deployment (typically one year long). Files also include quality control flags. More details about the project can be found at https://iop.apl.washington.edu/project.php?id=davis. 
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  4. Growing season temperatures play a crucial role in controlling treeline elevation at regional to global scales. However, understanding of treeline dynamics in response to long-term changes in temperature is limited. In this study, we analyze pollen, plant macrofossils, and charcoal preserved in organic layers within a 10,400-year-old ice patch and in sediment from a 6000-year-old wetland located above present-day treeline in the Beartooth Mountains, Wyoming, to explore the relationship between Holocene climate variability and shifts in treeline elevation. Pollen data indicate a lower-than-present treeline between 9000 and 6200 cal yr BP during the warm, dry summer and cold winter conditions of the early Holocene. Increases in arboreal pollen at 6200 cal yr BP suggest an upslope treeline expansion when summers became cooler and wetter. A possible hiatus in the wetland record at ca. 4200–3000 cal yr BP suggests increased snow and ice cover at high elevations and a lowering of treeline. Treeline position continued to fluctuate with growing season warming and cooling during the late-Holocene. Periods of high fire activity correspond with times of increased woody cover at high elevations. The two records indicate that climate was an important driver of vegetation and treeline change during the Holocene. Early Holocene treeline was governed by moisture limitations, whereas late-Holocene treeline was sensitive to increases in growing season temperatures. Climate projections for the region suggest warmer temperatures could decrease effective growing season moisture at high elevations resulting in a reduction of treeline elevation. 
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  5. Arctic Ocean gateway fluxes play a crucial role in linking the Arctic with the global ocean and affecting climate and marine ecosystems. We reviewed past studies on Arctic–Subarctic ocean linkages and examined their changes and driving mechanisms. Our review highlights that radical changes occurred in the inflows and outflows of the Arctic Ocean during the 2010s. Specifically, the Pacific inflow temperature in the Bering Strait and Atlantic inflow temperature in the Fram Strait hit record highs, while the Pacific inflow salinity in the Bering Strait and Arctic outflow salinity in the Davis and Fram straits hit record lows. Both the ocean heat convergence from lower latitudes to the Arctic and the hydrological cycle connecting the Arctic with Subarctic seas were stronger in 2000–2020 than in 1980–2000. CMIP6 models project a continuing increase in poleward ocean heat convergence in the 21st century, mainly due to warming of inflow waters. They also predict an increase in freshwater input to the Arctic Ocean, with the largest increase in freshwater export expected to occur in the Fram Strait due to both increased ocean volume export and decreased salinity. Fram Strait sea ice volume export hit a record low in the 2010s and is projected to continue to decrease along with Arctic sea ice decline. We quantitatively attribute the variability of the volume, heat, and freshwater transports in the Arctic gateways to forcing within and outside the Arctic based on dedicated numerical simulations and emphasize the importance of both origins in driving the variability. 
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  6. Understanding and predicting Arctic change and its impacts on global climate requires broad, sustained observations of the atmosphere-ice-ocean system, yet technological and logistical challenges severely restrict the temporal and spatial scope of observing efforts. Satellite remote sensing provides unprecedented, pan-Arctic measurements of the surface, but complementary in situ observations are required to complete the picture. Over the past few decades, a diverse range of autonomous platforms have been developed to make broad, sustained observations of the ice-free ocean, often with near-real-time data delivery. Though these technologies are well suited to the difficult environmental conditions and remote logistics that complicate Arctic observing, they face a suite of additional challenges, such as limited access to satellite services that make geolocation and communication possible. This paper reviews new platform and sensor developments, adaptations of mature technologies, and approaches for their use, placed within the framework of Arctic Ocean observing needs. 
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  8. Abstract The lack of continuous spatial and temporal sampling of hydrographic measurements in large parts of the Arctic Ocean remains a major obstacle for quantifying mean state and variability of the Arctic Ocean circulation. This shortcoming motivates an assessment of the utility of Argo-type floats, the challenges of deploying such floats due to the presence of sea ice, and the implications of extended times of no surfacing on hydrographic inferences. Within the framework of an Arctic coupled ocean–sea ice state estimate that is constrained to available satellite and in situ observations, we establish metrics for quantifying the usefulness of such floats. The likelihood of float surfacing strongly correlates with the annual sea ice minimum cover. Within the float lifetime of 4–5 years, surfacing frequency ranges from 10–100 days in seasonally sea ice–covered regions to 1–3 years in multiyear sea ice–covered regions. The longer the float drifts under ice without surfacing, the larger the uncertainty in its position, which translates into larger uncertainties in hydrographic measurements. Below the mixed layer, especially in the western Arctic, normalized errors remain below 1, suggesting that measurements along a path whose only known positions are the beginning and end points can help constrain numerical models and reduce hydrographic uncertainties. The error assessment presented is a first step in the development of quantitative methods for guiding the design of observing networks. These results can and should be used to inform a float network design with suggested locations of float deployment and associated expected hydrographic uncertainties. 
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